1. Modelling: What, Why, and How

Overview

This module introduces the foundational concepts of modelling and its role in public health decision-making. It provides participants with an understanding of what modelling is, the different purposes it serves, and how it can support malaria control and elimination efforts. The module also introduces key modelling approaches and emphasises the importance of aligning modelling with programme and policy needs.

TipLearning Objectives

By the end of this module, participants should be able to:

  • Understand what modelling is, and what purposes it serves in public health

  • Identify when modelling is an appropriate approach for informing decisions

  • Understand how different types of models are developed and applied

NoteKey Concepts

  • Definition and purpose of modelling

  • Types of models (conceptual, statistical, mathematical, simulation)

  • Models as decision-support tools

  • Strengths and limitations of modelling

  • Relationship between models, data, and policy

Delivery Plan

This module consists of two sessions, a lecture and a practical. These can be run back-to-back or spread over separate days depending on the schedule being followed. that can each be delivered in a 2–3 hour block, depending on the depth of discussion and exercises. The session is designed to be interactive, with opportunities for participants to engage in a practical exercise.

Topic Description Duration Format
Introduction to Modelling

What is modelling?

Why modelling matters in malaria programmes

Examples of modelling informing policy decisions

 30 min Presentation
Different Types of Models

Overview of modelling approaches

Comparing model types and applications

Strengths and limitations of different approaches

 30 min Presentation
Interactive Exercise

Participants review real-world malaria programme questions

Small groups discuss whether modelling would be useful and why

 45–60 min Small group break out exercise
Group Discussion

What makes modelling useful—or not useful—for decision-making?

Challenges participants have encountered in using evidence

 30 min Group discussion (plenary)
Reflection and Wrap-Up

Key takeaways

Common misconceptions about modelling

Where to next

 15–30 min Presentation

Practical Exercise

Exercise Title: Exploring SPPF - Interactive Malaria Modelling Tool

SPPF is an interactive malaria modelling tool for a single patch (one geographic/age group) for P. falciparum malaria.

Instructions:
Fellows work in groups to explore the SPPF tool through the following steps:

  1. Set the baseline parameters

  2. Calibrate to malaria prevalence

  3. Explore a combination of malaria

Example Scenarios

  • Comparing intervention strategies under limited funding

  • Assessing the impact of scaling up IRS in high-burden districts

  • Estimating future malaria burden under different climate conditions

Facilitator Guidance

  • Emphasise that models are simplifications of reality, not predictions of certainty

  • Encourage practical rather than overly technical discussions

  • Use relatable policy and programme examples

  • Reinforce that modelling is one input into decision-making, alongside operational and political considerations

Materials and Resources

  • Introductory slide deck

  • Example modelling case studies

  • Handout: Types of Models and Their Uses

  • Group discussion worksheets