11. Interpreting Model Outputs

Overview

This module focuses on interpreting modelling outputs and understanding what results mean within policy and programme contexts. Participants learn how to assess outputs critically, interpret trends and uncertainty, and translate findings into meaningful insights for decision-making.

TipLearning Objectives

By the end of this module, participants should be able to:

  • Identify what model outputs represent, and how they should be interpreted

  • Explain how assumptions and uncertainty influence outputs

  • Demonstrate how outputs can be translated into actionable insights for decision-making

NoteKey Concepts

  • Types of modelling outputs

  • Interpretation of trends and comparisons

  • Assumptions and uncertainty

  • Contextualising outputs within programmes

  • Translating findings into recommendations

Delivery Plan

This module runs in parallel with the remaining modules. It is designed to be revisited across several sessions throughout the second half of the Fellowship programme. This provides fellows with the opportunity to apply their learnings from subsequent modules and practice critically interpreting model outputs. As such, this module is not contained in a single session, rather it is best delivered over several sessions across the second and third intensive week, and the virtual sessions in between.

Topic Description Duration Format
Introduction to Model Outputs

Common output types and formats

Understanding what outputs represent

 20 min Presentation
Interpreting Results

Trends, comparisons, and uncertainty

Common interpretation challenges

 30 min Presentation
Case studies*

Introduction to the case study

Small group break out exercises

Group discussion

 90-120 min each Interactive exercise
Reflection and Wrap-Up

Key lessons for evidence-informed interpretation

Anatomy of a good key message

 15–30 min Presentation

*Multiple sessions with a different case study and emphasis are included throughout the remainder of the programme. For the inaugural cohort, we held 1 case study session in the second immersive week, 1 as a virtual session, and 2 in the final immersive week. The duration and number of sessions held should depend on the available time in future schedules; level of fellows engagement with, and understanding of, the material; and feedback from participants during the midline survey.

Practical Exercise/Case Studies

Exercise Title: Interpreting Outputs for Decision-Making

Note: This provides a broad overview and example discussion prompts that can be used for different case studies. Materials, examples, and specific discussion questions for different case studies are included in the materials repository.

Case study session outline:

Aim: Interpret and critically engage with model outputs and visualisations

Structure:

  • Introduction to the case study (10-20 min): provide the context, high level approach methods, key assumptions, overview of scenarios,

  • Breakout groups (20-40 min): provide the case materials and, if appropriate, discussion prompts for each small group.

  • Feedback & discussion (40-60 min)

  • Key messages & reflections (15-30 min): extract plots and key messages to project for the wrap-up with highlighted discussion points and reflections on each

Groups present their interpretations and recommendations.

Example Discussion Prompts:

Interpreting key messages and plots (this reinforces learnings from Module 9. Data Visualisation and Interpretation, but situates it in the broader context of the model results).

  • What model output(s) is this plot showing (be specific)?

  • What are the key messages? 

    • What is the main message?

    • What else is the plot telling you? (there are usually multiple takeaways from a single plot)

    • What is missing? What questions do you still have?

    • How do the key messages in the plot align with that in the text?

  • How intuitive/easy is the plot to read?

    • Axes? Labels?

    • Figure description - could you understand the plot without the description? Was the description adequate?

    • “Good” vs “Bad” - is this easy to read?

    • How simple/confusing is the plot? Right amount of detail or too busy?

  • Is uncertainty captured? 

  • What did you like/not like? What changes would you suggest?

Implications and usefulness for decision-making:

  • How useful would these studies (and the outputs they present) be for you as a decision-maker?

  • Which of the ways of communicating model outputs (tables, different types of plots) might you want to see for your own modelling exercise?

  • What would be 2-3 policy or programme implications from this study?

  • What are the implications of assumptions and uncertainty for decision-making in this case study?

Facilitator Guidance

  • Reinforce that outputs should always be interpreted within context

  • Encourage participants to question assumptions and uncertainty

  • Focus on decision relevance rather than technical detail alone

  • Use examples relevant to participant settings and roles

  • Draw on key learnings from other modules

Materials and Resources

  • Case studies with example model outputs and graphs

  • Interpretation guide/checklist

  • Facilitator slides