10. Scenario Analysis

Overview

This module introduces participants to scenario analysis as a tool for exploring the potential implications of different intervention, funding, or policy choices. Participants learn how scenarios are developed, compared, and interpreted to support strategic planning and decision-making under uncertainty.

TipLearning Objectives

By the end of this module, participants should be able to:

  • Understand scenario analysis and how it is used in modelling

  • Design meaningful and realistic scenarios

  • Interpret and compare scenario results

NoteKey Concepts

  • Baseline and alternative scenarios

  • Comparing interventions and strategies

  • Assumptions and uncertainty in scenarios

  • Strategic planning and prioritisation

  • Decision-making under uncertainty

Delivery Plan

This module consists of a single session, with a mix of presentation and exercise.

Topic Description Duration Format
Introduction to modelling

What is modelling?

Why modelling matters in malaria programmes

Examples of modelling informing policy decisions

 30 min Presentation
Different types of models

Overview of modelling approaches

Comparing model types and applications

Strengths and limitations of different approaches

 30 min Presentation
Interactive Exercise

Participants review real-world malaria programme questions

Small groups discuss whether modelling would be useful and why

 45–60 min Small group break out exercise
Group Discussion

What makes modelling useful—or not useful—for decision-making?

Challenges participants have encountered in using evidence

 30 min Group discussion (plenary)
Reflection and Wrap-Up

Key takeaways

Common misconceptions about modelling

Where to next

 15–30 min Presentation

Part 1: Introduction to Scenario Analysis (30 min)

  • Purpose and value of scenarios

  • Examples from malaria programmes

Part 2: Designing Scenarios (45 min)

  • Defining assumptions and comparisons

  • Ensuring realism and policy relevance

Part 3: Practical Exercise (45–60 min)

  • Participants develop and compare scenarios for a programme challenge

  • Discuss expected outcomes and trade-offs

Part 4: Group Discussion (30 min)

  • Interpreting results and uncertainty

  • Using scenarios to inform decisions

Part 5: Reflection and Wrap-Up (15 min)

  • Key considerations for scenario design and use

Practical Exercise

Exercise Title: Comparing Intervention Scenarios

Instructions:
 Participants work in groups to:

  1. Define a baseline scenario

  2. Develop 2–3 alternative intervention or funding scenarios

  3. Identify assumptions and expected outcomes

  4. Discuss how results would influence decision-making

Groups present and compare findings.

Facilitator Guidance

  • Encourage realistic and decision-focused scenarios

  • Reinforce that scenarios are exploratory, not predictions

  • Highlight the importance of communicating assumptions clearly

  • Use examples linked to resource allocation or intervention planning

Materials and Resources

  • Scenario planning templates

  • Malaria programme case studies

  • Facilitator slides

  • Group worksheets