10. Scenario Analysis

Overview

This module introduces participants to scenario analysis as a tool for exploring the potential implications of different intervention, funding, or policy choices. Participants learn how scenarios are developed, compared, and interpreted to support strategic planning and decision-making under uncertainty.

TipLearning Objectives

By the end of this module, participants should be able to:

  • Understand scenario analysis and how it is used in modelling

  • Design meaningful and realistic scenarios

  • Interpret and compare scenario results

NoteKey Concepts

  • Baseline and alternative scenarios

  • Comparing interventions and strategies

  • Assumptions and uncertainty in scenarios

  • Strategic planning and prioritisation

  • Decision-making under uncertainty

Delivery Plan

The teaching component of this module consists of a single 1.5-hour session, with a mix of presentation and exercise. However, themes from this module will be revisited in subsequent modules, discussed further in the Interpreting Model Outputs module, and applied in the Capstone Projects.

Topic Description Duration Format
Introduction to Scenario Analysis

Purpose and value of scenarios

Scenarios, forecasts and projections

Establishing counterfactuals

 20 min Presentation
Designing Scenarios

Defining assumptions and comparisons

Ensuring realism and policy relevance

Costing scenarios

Worked examples

 20 min Presentation and worked example discussion
Interactive Exercise Participants develop and compare scenarios for SMC modelling question 40 min Small group break out exercise
Reflection and Wrap-Up

Key considerations for scenario design and use

Using scenarios to inform decisions

 10 min Discussion

Practical Exercise

Exercise Title: Designing Scenarios for SMC

Instructions:
 Participants work in groups to consider the following modelling question: What is the expected health impact and cost over 5 years (2026 - 2030) of introducing SMC through door-to-door delivery or health facilities?

Develop a set of scenarios to explore to support answering this question. Define your baseline and identify the outcome measures of interest.

Consider: 

  • High prevalence vs moderate prevalence settings

  • Coverage (conservative vs optimistic)

  • Consider an appropriate counterfactual scenario

    • Climate assumptions 

    • With or without ITN use

Groups present and compare scenarios and key assumptions informing their choices.

Facilitator Guidance

  • Encourage realistic and decision-focused scenarios

  • Reinforce that scenarios are exploratory, not predictions

  • Highlight the importance of communicating assumptions clearly

  • Use examples linked to resource allocation or intervention planning

Materials and Resources

  • Malaria programme case studies

  • Facilitator slides